Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 10.545834 12.091004 13.757112 15.683848 17.847137 20.197513 22.940874
2025-07-13 8.427591 10.551394 13.020012 16.087679 19.782669 24.074117 29.418899
2025-07-20 7.328490 9.708563 12.610445 16.382943 21.128637 26.869193 34.303673
2025-07-27 6.331151 8.832579 12.017892 16.330496 21.969655 29.040093 38.515055
2025-08-03 5.514120 8.054098 11.414896 16.129490 22.504313 30.747042 42.119067
2025-08-10 4.920854 7.496054 11.024487 16.135445 23.256696 32.720010 46.115730
2025-08-17 4.476284 7.087680 10.781878 16.291061 24.177715 34.918235 50.473684
2025-08-24 4.043599 6.645249 10.439986 16.257961 24.802203 36.709008 54.325690
2025-08-31 3.642899 6.205907 10.055917 16.116860 25.236457 38.223925 57.828579
2025-09-07 3.353406 5.907683 9.850917 16.212090 25.998845 40.215288 62.069421
2025-09-14 3.183403 5.782432 9.895597 16.678816 27.325528 43.067302 67.661413
2025-09-21 2.894998 5.431987 9.553613 16.510003 27.658809 44.449036 71.124849
2025-09-28 2.505269 4.875950 8.842433 15.712204 26.980132 44.297896 72.323692
2025-10-05 2.377290 4.767197 8.862660 16.105474 28.208431 47.114124 78.162190
2025-10-12 2.245584 4.637249 8.832812 16.405035 29.288687 49.731731 83.781756
2025-10-19 2.069029 4.406082 8.607202 16.351120 29.774579 51.420186 87.998481
2025-10-26 1.888129 4.147976 8.311563 16.150376 29.993180 52.675250 91.557841
2025-11-02 1.753753 3.967441 8.141295 16.156167 30.556354 54.503874 96.101418
2025-11-09 1.651017 3.840292 8.059113 16.312021 31.381245 56.789656 101.469385
2025-11-16 1.533478 3.670612 7.882246 16.278862 31.864580 58.514320 105.961601
2025-11-23 1.413733 3.483939 7.657167 16.137607 32.140401 59.888458 109.904779
2025-11-30 1.330207 3.367501 7.560958 16.232943 32.845093 62.018228 115.195136
2025-12-07 1.291063 3.346329 7.654490 16.700203 34.255307 65.424452 122.789713